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KMID : 1124020210370040065
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Korean Social Security Studies
2021 Volume.37 No. 4 p.65 ~ p.92
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An Empirical Study on the Effect and the Contribute Rate of Housing Price and Private Education Expense on the Total Fertility Rate
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Park Jin-Baek
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Abstract
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This study analyzes the effects of housing prices and private education expenses on the total fertility rate for 16 metropolitan governments in South Korea from 2009 to 2020, and estimates the contribution rates of each variable to the decline in the TFR. As a result of analysis with the dynamic panel model, the current year's TFR is positive affected by the TFR for the previous year, and the increase in apartment sales and jeonse prices in the previous year is analyzed to reduce the TFR for the current year. Also, consistently in all analyses, it is analyzed that the increase in per capita private education expenses in the previous year decreased the TFR. Macroscopically, the TFR improves when the economy grew, and the TFR worsens when unemployment increased in the previous year. It is analyzed that the high participation group in private education shows a very strong response to the increase in private education expenses. The low participation group in private education is analyzed to avoid childbirth because it is more strongly influenced by the housing price than the high participation group. Through the Shapley decomposition, the impact of the previous year's TFR is 23.2~27.4%, and the impact of the previous year's private education expenses is 22.5~32.5%. The housing price is analyzed at a relatively small level of 8.6~14.0%, and it is analyzed that the influence of the jeonse price is greater than the housing sale price.
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KEYWORD
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Total Fertility Rate, Housing Price, Private Education Expense, Dynamic Panel Model, Shapley Decomposition
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